21 February

Пиастры – Выбор и оценка ниши

Предыдущая часть мануала
x0074_logoПора начинать действовать. Работа сегодня предстоит большая, поэтому не будем тянуть резину и перейдем сразу к делу. Сегодня нам надо определиться про что будем делать сайты. Это, наверное, самая сложная и ответственная часть работы. Когда план есть, нужно просто действовать. А пока у нас нет ничего, и план нам предстоит еще придумать или выбрать.

Я не открою Америку, если скажу, что в рунете есть два главных поисковика: Гугл и Яндекс, причем доля Яндекса почти в два раза больше, чем Гугла. Именно поэтому имеет смысл в первую очередь ориентироваться в своей работе на Яндекс.

Что нужно знать о Яндексе и запросах?

Выдача Яндекса отличается для разных пользователей. То есть Яндекс создает для вас персональную выдачу, показывая более высоко те сайты, которые по мнению Яндекса вам понравились. Что нам это дает? Да ничего особенного, кроме того, что лучше проверять позиции своих сайтов сторонними сервисами.

В Яндексе есть более чем 1200 регионов. Для каждого региона формируется своя выдача. То есть список сайтов топ10 для запроса «заказать пиццу» для пользователей из Москвы и Владивостока будут отличаться. То есть нам желательно работать с геонезависимыми запросами!

Кроме того, у Яндекса есть разные алгоритмы ранжирования для коммерческих и некоммерческих запросов. Причем не возникает сомнений, что продвигаться и получать трафик в некоммерческой тематике проще.

Ну и не стоит забывать про классику, запросы можно разделить на информационные, транзакционные и навигационные. Теперь задам простой вопрос: какие запросы нас должны интересовать?

Правильный ответ: информационные.

Почему?

  1. Потому что для большинства информационных запросов региональность не установлена, то есть это геонезаивсимые запросы. Все логично, ведь нет никакой разницы откуда спрашивают «как приготовить плов», хоть с Камчатки, хоть с Елисейских полей.
  2. Конкуренция по запросам «как выбрать плойку» и «купить плойку» – разная, для информационных запросов в большинстве своем она меньше чем для транзакционных. Простыми словами: там, где есть слово купить, там идет битва бюджетов. Участвовать в состязаниях по типу «у кого длиннее» – не самое разумное решение.
  3. Как заявлял Яндекс, ссылки отключили для региона Москва для коммерческих запросов, то есть в некоммерческом секторе ссылочки продолжают работать.

Нужно понимать, что информационные запросы тоже можно поделить на группы: развлекательные и коммерческие.

То есть юмор, музыка, кино и т.п. относим к развлекательной, а информационные запросы по тематикам стройка, дизайн, авто, медицина и т.п. – это коммерческие запросы. Разделение, конечно, весьма условно, но оно важно.

Естественно, трафика в развлекательных тематиках много больше, чем в коммерчески, т.к. 85% юзеров сети приходят сюда именно «что-нибудь зазырить» :)

Развлекательная тематика плохо монетизируется, поэтому о развлекательных сайтах мы говорить не будем. Возможно, позже я задамся целью написать мануал по ним.

Но информационно-коммерческие тематики можно монетизировать, трафика там меньше, он дороже. Зачастую в таких тематиках уже все давно поделено. Например, в тематике строительство серьезная конкуренция, но и достаточно высокие биды.

Что такое бид? Бид, если говорить по-простому, это цена клика по рекламе, которая размещена у вас на сайте.

Вот мы и подошли к вопросу выбора ниши. Какую нишу выбрать лучше всего?

Правильный ответ: нужна ниша, в которой конкуренция маленькая, а стоимость бида – большая. Мир не черно белый, поэтому придется искать золотую середину в оттенках серого.
Чтобы задача не казалась сложной, надо разбить ее на простые этапы. По сути задача не сложная, нам надо знать 3 цифры:

  • Потенциальный объем трафика,
  • Конкуренция в нише,
  • Цена бида.

Оцениваем объем трафика в нише

Мы ориентируемся на Яндекс, поэтому проще всего определить объем ниши с помощью статистики Яндекс Директ. Итак, идем по адресу: http://wordstat.yandex.ru/?direct=1 и вбиваем наиболее важные запросы в выбранной нами нише. Например, «баня»:
0063

Количество показов по этому широкому запросу аж 2 800 000 в месяц. Но непонятно, на какой объем трафика нам можно рассчитывать. Первым делом надо перевести количество показов в месяц в количество показов в день. То есть делим наше число на 30, получаем 93 000 показов в день.

Надо отметить, что речь на данный момент идет о показах, а не пользователях, которые данной темой интересуются. Есть статистика, что на одного пользователя приходится в среднем полтора просмотра страниц результатов поиска. Что это значит? Это значит, что нам надо количество показов уменьшить на 30%, чтобы получить количество пользователей, которые интересуется нужной нам темой. Получается, что в Яндексе в день интересуется банями порядка 62 000 пользователей. Но вспоминаем, что у нас есть еще Гугл, трафик с которого на 50% меньше, чем в Яндексе. Поэтому общий потенциал все же 93 000 пользователей в день.

Естественно, мы можем получить себе только часть, причем маленькую часть. Реально получить порядка 3-5% трафика, это при условии, что будет сделан большой, качественный, прокачанный сайт. Таким образом делим дневную аудиторию на 20. Получаем 4 650 пользователей в день. Вот именно к такому трафику и стоит стремиться.

Теперь упрощаем расчет. По сути нам надо общее количество показов разделить на 600, тогда получим ориентировочный объем аудитории в месяц, которую реально привлечь на сайт.

Естественно, расчеты надо проверять на практике, поэтому необходимо вбить несколько запросов в Яндекс и постараться найти несколько хороших сайтов, посмотреть их реальный трафик. Я мгновенно нашел http://www.poparimsya.com/. Если мы посмотрим трафик по ЛивИнтернету, то картина будет следующая:
0064

То есть сайт, сделанный весьма неплохо, но не занимающий лидирующие позиции, имеет трафик в районе 3500-4000 посетителей в день. Какой вывод? Мы объем ниши определили верно.

Теперь важное замечание. Есть понятие сезонности, например, блины спрашивают только раз в году, окрошку летом, а пик запросов по Египту приходится на зиму. Это надо учитывать, когда оцениваете объем. Желательно выбирать те ниши, которые имеют слабую сезонную зависимость трафика от времени года или какой-нибудь даты.

Вот как выглядит сезонность бань:
0065

Сезонность есть, но спрос не падает в самые плохие месяцы ниже 2 000 000 показов. Так же нам необходимо понять, насколько меняется спрос из года в год. Для чего это нам? Для того, чтобы не заниматься напрасным трудом… Зачем делать сайт, интерес к которому увядает?

Для того, чтобы оценить, как меняется спрос, нужно сравнить числа одного месяца в двух разных годах:
0066

Теперь мы можем точно сказать, что данная ниша набирает обороты, то есть интерес пользователей к ней растет, а не падает.

В ускорении процесса получения статистики по сайтам вам поможет плагин для Гугл Хрома, который позволяет посмотреть статистику сайта, не посещая непосредственно рейтинг ЛивИнтренет. Если вы знаете аналогичный плагин для Мозила ФФ, подскажите – буду благодарен.

На выходе получаем результаты тестирования ниши:

  • Приоритетный запрос,
  • Оценка трафика по Я.Директ,
  • Оценка трафика по ЛивИнтернет,
  • Сезонность: да-нет,
  • Список сайтов лидеров.

Лидеры нам еще пригодятся для анализа!

Оцениваем стоимость рекламы

Пришло время посчитать, сколько денег будет стоить клик по нашим рекламным объявлениям, когда на нашем сайте будет трафик и мы будем готовы на нем зарабатывать. Для начала нам надо выбрать несколько запросов из нашей темы. Запросы должны быть среднечастотные. Например, по теме бани, это может быть «строительство бани», «баня своими руками» и т.п.

Далее идем в Яндекс Директ, в раздел прогноз бюджета:
0067

Вводим подобранные запросы, нажимаем Посчитать:
0068

Система нам сделает расчет бюджета, который мы будем анализировать:
0069

Надо выбрать позицию гарантированных показов, посчитать среднюю стоимость клика. Получается у нас 0,82 у.е. Важно, что 1 у.е. в Яндексе равен 30 рублям. То есть средняя цена клика 24,6 руб.

Ну и теперь начинается самое интересное. От посчитанной нам цены надо бы откусить 50%, так как стоимость контекстной рекламы на сайтах из РСЯ в два раза дешевле стоимости рекламы на выдаче поиска. Далее 55% Яндекс забирает себе комиссию. Ну и не забываем, что еще есть налог в 13%. Таким образом, цену клика нужно смело делить на 4-5, чтобы получить реальную стоимость клика у нас на сайте. Получается, что за один клик мы будем иметь в районе 5 рублей.

Альтернативным методом оценки стоимости бида является оценка с помощью Google Keyword Tool. Но его мне описывать не очень хочется, так что предлагаю изучить данный инструмент самостоятельно.

Результатом данного этапа является средняя стоимость клика в нише!

Оцениваем конкуренцию

Мёда нам достаточно, пора озаботиться и дегтем. Мы потенциально посчитали, сколько денег будет приносить реклама, сколько трафика в теме. Но не посчитали сколько еще желающих заработать в теме. А их бывает настолько много, что и начинать не хочется.

Для этого нам понадобится проверить выдачу по нескольким запросам и отсмотреть основных конкурентов. Через какое-то время у вас появится опыт и можно будет с первого взгляда сказать, тяжело ли будет попасть в топ по тому или иному запросу. Но пока стоит опираться на цифры.

Нам на самом деле нужно получить некоторый показатель, причем неважно, насколько он верно будет показывать себестоимость по конкретному ключу… Важно, что он будет показывать относительную правду по сайтам, мелькающим в той или иной тематике.

Как оценить сайт? У поисковых систем есть понятие траста, то есть некоторого уровня доверия. Чем траст выше – тем сайту больше доверяют, тем лучше позиции, тем больше трафика он имеет, тем проще его продвигать! Вот только незадача – значение траста для сайтов ни одна поисковая система не показывает. А мы можем только догадываться или строить свои показатели.

Так как определить траст? Из всех вариантов, которые я видел, мне больше всего нравится идея Арбайтена. Он предлагает мерить траст сайта в Яндексе элементарно просто: количеством предоставляемых лимитов для XML поиска. Чем больше у сайта лимитов, тем лучше. Все гениальное просто. Идея рабочая! Только есть одна проблема: сторонние сайты, увы, не померить. Можно только оценить траст своих ресурсов. Поэтому нам данный вариант не подходит.

Я предлагаю мерить траст конкурентов оправдавшим доверие показателем Xt, который рассчитывается сервисом Xtool.ru. Результат проверки выглядит вот так:
0070

Специально для любителей автоматизации есть API, который позволит сильно ускорить аналитику.

Опытные вебмастера могут заметить, что надо смотреть конкуренцию по конкретным фразам, оценивать ссылки, которые ведут на ресурсы в топе. Может быть, но я не рекомендую заниматься такого рода аналитикой, т.к. закупать ссылки надо уметь, а зачастую на сайты стоит такое количество плохих, неработающих и абсурдных ссылок, что разгребать эти Авдеевы конюшни не вижу смысла.

В результате: выделяем в выдаче сайты конкуренты, записываем их адреса и траст Xt.

Подводим промежуточный итог

Мы научились оценивать ниши, в которых потенциально можно делать контентные проекты, приносящие доход на контекстной рекламе.

Результаты проверки надо занести в таблицу. Ее внешний вид будет таким:
0071

На этом технология оценки ниши заканчивается. Далее сплошное творчество и никакой техники.

Напоследок хочется поделиться некоторой практикой, какие тематики приносят деньги? Показы контекстной рекламы по тематикам (кликабельно):
0072

Откуда брать идеи?

Будем говорить про банальные вещи, которые были сказаны тысячу раз.

Лучше всего сайт делать на тему, которая вам интересна, в которой вы разбираетесь. Но далеко не всегда это работает. Например, я не люблю заниматься монотонной работой. Отсюда два вывода: я не смогу делать сайты сам, т.к. это требует много однообразных операций. Если сайт буду делать не я, то вряд ли стоит ориентироваться на собственные интересы.

Чем больше ниш мы подберем, тем больше у нас будет выбор, тем проще нам будет сделать сайт и занять лидирующие позиции.

Где взять идеи?

  • В сети. Просматриваем рейтинги, каталоги сайтов на предмет идей, все что хоть чуть-чуть нравится, конспектируем и потом проверяем. Вот краткий перечень каталогов и рейтингов: Я.К., Дмоз, Рейтинг@Mail.Ru, LiveInternet, uCoz TOP100.
  • В газетах, смотрим объявления, думаем, можно ли применить. Например, те же бани, увидел в газете объявление Бани под ключ. Понял, что тема интересная, проверил насколько трафиковая ниша, решил, делать ли сайт.
  • Хорошая тема сходить в книжный магазин, только не в раздел фантастики, или посетить Интернет-магазин Озон. Но на ощупь лично я усваиваю лучше.
  • Пройдитесь по своим друзьям в социальных сетях, посмотрите, в каких сообществах они состоят. Возможно натолкнет на идеи.
  • Разберите большие порталы. Например, возьмем какой-нибудь Авто.ру, на нем есть куча разделов: новости, тест драйвы, обзоры, отзывы и т.п. Каждый раздел может стать нишей для вашего сайта.

Домашнее задание

Необходимо проанализировать хотя бы 50 ниш, оценить возможность создания сайтов. Пятьдесят – это минимум, лучше проверить 100 ниш, а еще лучше 200. За неделю проверить 100 ниш не составит труда! Успехов и до связи!

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Пиастры - ВведениеПиастры за контекст на бутылку рома - финал марафона
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